We'll keep these predictions up
until just before the next season so you can see how on-target these predictions
may have been.
For the record, for the 2009 season
we didn't find as many people willing to make predictions as in the past.
The baseball reporting staff of the
Yomiuri Shimbun ventures out on the limb to offer their collective
picks.
Central League in order of
2009 predicted finish
1. Yomiuri Giants
The Giants didn't sit still in the
offseason after winning their second straight CL title.
They snatched up more relief help,
plucking closer Micheal Nakamura from the Nippon Ham Fighters in a four-player
deal that sent infielder Tomohiro Nioka to Hokkaido. That puts the Giants in the
driver's seat again.
UPSIDE: A change from recent
seasons, the bullpen figures to be the most stable part of the club. The
addition of Nakamura adds to a pen that was led by speedballer Marc Kroon's
franchise-record 41 saves.
Lefty Tetsuya Yamaguchi (11-2),
entering his third season, came on strong to post 34 holds--tied for second in
the CL--and hard-throwing Daisuke Ochi, who had 68 appearances, give skipper
Tatsunori Hara liberty to manage aggressively in late-game situations.
The Giants last year led the CL in
runs scored with 631 and hit 177 homers, 32 more than the next-closest team,
Yokohama. The power level won't drop off.
Expect the Giants to hand the
centerfield job to Yoshiyuki Kamei, who played in a career-high 96 games last
season before being slowed by injury.
Hara has excellent speed on his
bench and isn't afraid to use it, and is never shy about sitting an unproductive
veteran.
DOWNSIDE: Two words: starting
pitching. After Seth Greisinger (17-2 last year) and Tetsuya Utsumi (12-8), no
one else in the rotation was close to double digits in wins. Yomiuri will need
its bullpen to cover for an obvious weakness. In addition, the Giants' regulars
are not that fast, especially in the outfield. Even if Yoshinobu Takahashi
returns from a bad shoulder, Kamei figures to be busy in center, covering for
Alex Ramirez in left and Takahashi in right.
Michihiro Ogasawara and Shinnosuke
Abe also slow the team down, which will likely allow double plays to cut into
the club's power-hitting advantage.
IMPACT CHANGES: Nakamura, who
collected 102 saves and a 2.20 ERA in four seasons with the Fighters, will
likely set up Kroon and get the occasional close-out opportunity.
Former ace Koji Uehara left for the
Baltimore Orioles, leaving a hole Hara has to manage around.
Offensively, ex-San Francisco Giants
infielder Edgardo Alfonzo brings 12 years of major league experience to the
lineup.
KEY PLAYER: Ramirez is coming off a
career year that ended with the CL MVP award. His career-best 125 RBIs led Japan
and he batted .319 with 45 homers--also a career high--in his first season with
Yomiuri. Ramirez will have the cleanup spot from the start of the season and the
Giants can put enough players around him to give opposing teams headaches.
2. Hanshin Tigers
Collapse is the best way to describe
the Hanshin Tigers' performance in the second half after holding a 13-game lead
on July 9.
The hard tumble lasted into the
playoffs, where they lost in the best-of-three first stage of the CL Climax
Series to the third-place Chunichi Dragons. That means the Tigers will be in
hunting mode under new manager Akinobu Mayumi, who took over after Akinobu Okada
stepped aside as a result of his team's sudden drop.
UPSIDE: The Tigers figure to have
strong pitching again with Yuya Ando (a team-high, 13-game winner last season),
veteran southpaw Tsuyoshi Shimoyanagi (11 wins) and pick-up Yasutomo Kubo from
Lotte in a trade. Takahiro Arai, who had 59 RBIs out of the No. 3 hole in his
first season as a free agent last year, was slowed by injuries after the Beijing
Games.
The first baseman had his struggles
but saw a lot of pitches to hit while batting in front of cleanup man Tomoaki
Kanemoto. Arai will go back to playing third base, where he played in Hiroshima,
and Mayumi wants him in the No. 5 hole to protect Kanemoto.
DOWNSIDE: Hanshin's starting
pitching is a question mark, as is the bullpen, which might take some hits this
season. Closer Kyuji Fujikawa, whose 38 saves were second best in the CL, hasn't
lost a thing, but Tomoyuki Kubota worked 193-1/3 innings the past two seasons
and was hit hard at times in '08. After having a shut-down season in 2007 (0.96
ERA), Jeff Williams took his share of lumps and saw his ERA jump to a
still-respectable 3.09. Still, the Tigers can shorten games with the best of
them.
impact changes: The usually
power-hungry Tigers brought in outfielder Kevin Mench, and with Arai at third
base, need some pop from their outfielders. Hanshin traded righty Kentaro
Hashimoto to Lotte for right-hander Yoshitomo Kubo, who can add to their mound
management. The Tigers also lost backup catcher Toshihiro Noguchi to Yokohama
via free agency.
KEY PLAYER: Kanemoto appears to be
the easy choice here, but Arai provided a huge lift last season and figures to
be the key to their success. The slugger, who hit 99 homers in his previous
three seasons in Hiroshima, hit eight last season. If Arai learns to jack them
out at Koshien--as Kanemoto did in his second season with the Tigers--Hanshin
could easily put together another playoff run.
3. Hiroshima Carp
The fish open a new stadium in
Hiroshima with a fresh sense of anticipation.
Marty Brown's Carp could be ready
for a playoff run if his pitchers stay on course and his offense clicks.
UPSIDE: Colby Lewis proved to be one
the top hurlers in Japan last season, fueling Hiroshima's run at the postseason
with a 15-8 record and a 2.68 ERA, both second best in the league. His 183
strikeouts were tops in the CL.
Kan Otake, the Opening Day starter
last year, was also among the top 10 hurlers in the CL and is at the heart of a
young pitching staff that could get better in a hurry.
Kenta Kurihara, in his first year as
the cleanup hitter, came through by hitting .332 with 23 homers and 103 RBIs.
Closer Katsuhiro Nagakawa rebounded
from an off year with 38 saves--tied for second best in the CL--and a 1.77 ERA.
DOWNSIDE: Despite playing in a
tremendous hitter's park in a hitter's league, the Carp were just 10th in runs
scored.
After Lewis and Otake, Hiroshima's
rotation is inexperienced, and the defense needs to be more consistent late in
games.
IMPACT CHANGES: The Carp signed
longtime Yokohama shortstop Takuro Ishii, who brings veteran leadership to a
defense that stopped more balls than average, but also made a CL-high 87 errors.
They did not re-sign Alex Ochoa, the
club's second most productive hitter, while veteran southpaw Ken Takahashi, who
went 8-5 last season, left for the States.
KEY PLAYER: Kurihara continued to
get better in 2008 and will anchor the offense again. Playing in a new stadium
will take some time for the Carp to get used to, but Kurihara can hit the ball
out of any park.
4. Tokyo Yakult Swallows
If the Swallows' run of form
continues, they will do a better job of scoring and preventing runs than four
teams in the league for the third straight season--and once more finish out of
the playoffs.
UPSIDE: The Swallows are the fastest
team in Japan, and that will be more valuable this season now that Hiroshima has
exchanged its bandbox for a big park.
The pitching is ordinary but very
young and loaded with potential, especially from 19-year-old Yoshinori Sato,
20-year-old Tatsuyoshi Masubuchi and 21-year-old lefty Kyohei Muranaka.
The Swallows were Japan's youngest
team last season, and manager Shigeru Takada is bent on giving the kids playing
time, meaning someone could come out of nowhere to change the CL's balance of
power.
DOWNSIDE: There is a power shortage
unless Aaron Guiel returns to the form that saw him slug 35 home runs in 2007,
when Jingu Stadium's dimensions were shorter in left and right--he hit 11 last
year in an injury-depleted 225 at-bats. Because the Swallows are good at getting
on base, the lack of power means more guys left on base.
IMPACT CHANGES: The Swallows added
defense by signing free agent catcher Ryoji Aikawa from Yokohama.
First baseman Jamie D'Antona is a
good player but only a minor upgrade over Kazuhiro Hatakeyama, who is also a
slow, 27-year-old, right-handed, line-drive hitter.
KEY PLAYER: Center fielder Norichika
Aoki is now entering his prime--he turned 27 in January--and has gotten better
every year since he was the CL's top rookie in 2005. He has the potential to hit
.350 with 30 homers and 30 steals.
5. Chunichi Dragons
The Chunichi Dragons are rebuilding
from the middle up, but the holes might be too difficult to fill.
Skipper Hiromitsu Ochiai has decided
to flip-flop his Golden Glove double-play combination, moving perhaps Japan's
top shortstop, Hirokazu Ibata, to second and asking Masahiro Araki to play
shortstop. The move might cut down on Ibata's injuries, but might cost a younger
pitching staff extra baserunners and additional runs.
In the end, unproven players and
loss of key players might keep them out the postseason.
upside: The Dragons always seem to
produce quality arms out of their farm system. Chunichi will likely turn to more
of a speed game in cavernous Nagoya Dome, where they can keep games close.
Kazuki Yoshimi was brilliant in
Chunichi's CL Climax Series clincher over Hanshin and is an Opening Day
candidate. Outfielder Atsushi Fujii has been hot all spring, hitting .395 with
five homers, three triples and two doubles.
downside: The rotation is Chunichi's
biggest question. Kenichi Nakata suffered through an off '08 as did Kenta
Asakura. Only 43-year-old Masahiro Yamamoto, who went over 200 career wins
during his 11-7 run last season, is a proven starter but is due for his biennial
slump.
impact changes: The Dragons didn't
re-sign three-time CL home run champ Tyrone Woods, who won three home run
titles, in the offseason and lost ace right-hander Kenshin Kawakami to the
Atlanta Braves.
They also lost power-hitting third
baseman Norihiro Nakamura--also a two-time Golden Glove winner with the club--to
free agency. They've brought in infielder Tony Blanco and lefty Nelson Payano.
KEY PLAYER: Masahiko Morino,
nicknamed Mr. Three Run, will likely be called upon to fill the cleanup hole in
the lineup.
6. Yokohama BayStars
Yokohama has some quality parts in a
sputter-plagued machine. A third-place finish in 2005 turned into last-place
failures in two of the past three seasons. The club added a little pitching,
somehow retained ace Daisuke Miura and dumped an aging shortstop for a younger
one.
upside: Former Rakuten and Nippon
Ham hurler Ryan Glynn joins the pitching-poor team after three consecutive trips
to the postseason with the Fighters.
Glynn, who started in Japan with the
Eagles, brings a career 3.23 ERA and a 23-29 record, as well as some experience,
to the BayStars.
He figures to follow Miura, the
likely Opening Day starter and longtime ace, in a rotation that is largely
unproven.
Seiichi Uchikawa, the '08 batting
champ, has become an impact player, and homer king Shuichi Murata can carry the
BayStars offense once he returns from a torn hamstring suffered in the World
Baseball Classic.
downside: The BayStars had trouble
getting off the field, allowing a whopping 706 runs--easily the highest figure
in Japan since 2005 and 112 more than second-worst Hiroshima.
They need more help on the mound,
where 45-year-old Kimiyasu Kudo attempts to keep his career rolling.
impact changes: The BayStars said
goodbye to 38-year-old shortstop Takuro Ishii, releasing him in the offseason
and turning things over to speedy fifth-year infielder Takehiro Ishikawa.
They've also added power-hitting outfielder Dan Johnson.
KEY PLAYER: Murata has improved
defensively and is coming off his second CL home run crown. He can cover a lot
of mistakes with one swing, and with Uchikawa hitting in front of him all year,
will have the chance to drive in a lot of runs.
Pacific League in order of
2009 predicted finish
1. Saitama Seibu Lions
The Lions did more than change their
name last season when they added Saitama to their moniker. They also changed
their style. The drab dogma Seibu advocated for 29 years was gone under new
skipper Hisanobu Watanabe.
Instead, the Lions adopted a
free-swinging style, and it's fitting that their new uniforms this year are a
throwback to the franchise's big-swinging days in Fukuoka as the Nishitetsu
Lions. Although Seibu slugged its way to the pennant, the Lions transformed in
the Japan Series, winning with strong pitching, tight defense and timely
hitting.
Upside: Seventh-year slugger Takeya
Nakamura has developed into the PL's premier power hitter and figures to improve
on a .244 average, although he might fail to match his PL-best 46 homers.
Hiroyuki Nakajima, who just missed
winning the batting title, was healthy enough to make it through most of the
season without injury and slugged 32 longballs along the way. He also picked up
his defense and played hurt in the Series.
Seibu smashed a Japan-best 198
homers last year, and its team average of .270 was second best in the PL. The
Lions also led the league with 107 stolen bases, thanks to Yasuyuki Kataoka's
league-leading 50.
Series-MVP Takayuki Kishi and
Hideaki Wakui, who rescued his year in the postseason, should anchor the
rotation. Alex Graman has developed into one of Japan's more reliable closers,
saving 31 games last season without blowing an opportunity until the final month
of the title run.
Hiram Bocachica hit 20 homers and
drew 24 walks in just 279 trips to the plate, giving the Lions depth in the
outfield.
DOWNside: The Lions led Japan by
striking out 1,093 times, and their 378 walks were fifth in the league, giving
the offense lots of room for improvement. Nakamura's 162 strikeouts were the
most in Japan by far.
The 449 walks Seibu issued last
season were seven shy of the Eagles' Japan-high total. The Lions had holes in
their rotation when veterans Kazuhisa Ishii and Fumiya Nishiguchi pitched. Ishii
might be better, but Nishiguchi is a long shot to bounce back.
IMPACT CHANGES: The Lions released
Craig Brazell, who slugged 27 homers and had 87 RBIs. His .294 on-base
percentage, however, was a hole in the middle of the order. Giving his playing
time to Taketoshi Goto will be a step up.
KEY PLAYER: Nakajima had a career
year at the plate and in the field. In addition to his steady regular-season
play, Nakajima has become a deadly big-game player.
He was one of Japan's standouts at
the Beijing Olympics, a star in the Japan Series and again in the World Baseball
Classic.
2. Orix Buffaloes
Some of the strongest pitching in
the PL and a power-packed lineup give the Buffaloes reasons to think about
reaching the Climax Series for the second straight season.
The Buffaloes, who scored the
third-most runs in the PL and had the fourth-best team ERA, have added power and
a little pitching to a team that made a second-half sprint that pushed it into
the postseason.
The Buffaloes have reason to expect
a more consistent season from start to finish.
Upside: A number of pitchers went
down last spring, but 2007 surprise Chihiro Kaneko had a second strong season,
30-year-old lefty Shogo Yamamoto stepped up and righty Satoshi Komatsu went 15-3
to win Rookie of the Year honors.
Yoshihisa Hirano was one of those
injured hurlers, and a strong comeback from him could give the Buffaloes one of
the best pitching staffs in Japan.
Jose Fernandez still has some pop
but even more important, brings a career .364 on-base percentage. If Greg
LaRocca returns with anything like his pre-2008 form, he, too, will get on base.
downside: The problem with all the
big foreign bats is a lack of speed and defense.
Alex Cabrera had an unusually good
season at first base last year, but that is Fernandez's best position. Fernandez
can play third, but that is LaRocca's best position. Someone has to be the
designated hitter here, but putting 40-year-old Tuffy Rhodes in the outfield
often is problematic in the big PL parks. Using LaRocca or Fernandez also pushes
the quality bat of Hirotoshi Kitagawa onto the bench.
The Buffaloes grounded into only 90
double plays last season, but that total could go way up for a club that was the
oldest in the PL last season and will get older still this season.
IMPACT CHANGES: The Fernandez
acquisition could be useful or it could be redundant because there are only so
many slow right-handed hitters one team can use. A more useful pickup was the
trade for outfielder and former Osaka Kintetsu Buffalo Naoyuki Omura from
SoftBank. Although 33 and slowed by injuries the past few years, Omura still
brings speed and defense to the table.
The Buffaloes also signed free agent
hurler Ryan Vogelsong, who spent two seasons with Hanshin. Vogelsong is 10-10 in
two years here, and injuries limited him to only 12 appearances in '08.
Key player: Rhodes is coming off one
of his best years in Japan. The slugger topped the 40-homer plateau for the
seventh time in 12 seasons here.
His 118 RBIs were the most he had
driven in since 2003 with Kintetsu.
With more runners on ahead of him
and better hitters coming up behind him, Rhodes might drive in and score 100
runs.
3. Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles
Additions have the Eagles eyeing a
shot at the postseason in their fifth season, and with good reason.
More consistency on offense and in
the field helped Rakuten to a fourth-place finish in 2007, but it failed to
match greater expectations last season.
Upside: Ace Hisashi Iwakuma was
Japan's first 21-game winner since 1985 and won the Sawamura Award.
A staff whose 3.86 ERA was third
best in the PL has added former Yankee Darrell Rasner. Along with 20-year-old
righty Masahiro Tanaka, who enters his third season with a 20-14 career record,
they could form a formidable top three.
With free agent pickup Norihiro
Nakamura in the hot corner, and a full season from slugger Fernando Seguignol,
Rakuten has more power to boost itself into the playoffs. Outfielder Rick Short
is a .320 hitter in four seasons with Rakuten and won the PL batting title last
year with a .332 average. In addition to the veterans, the Eagles have a host of
emerging young players in the field and on the mound.
DOWNside: Power was lacking in
Sendai last season--the Eagles' 94 homers were next to last in the PL--and
40-year-old DH Takeshi Yamasaki doesn't figure to hit many more than the 26 he
belted last year.
IMPACT CHANGES: Nakamura won six
Golden Gloves at third and brings a steady power supply to third to replace Jose
Fernandez, who had two productive seasons in Sendai. Rasner gives the Eagles
another useful pitcher and it could be enough to catapult the team into the
playoffs. The Eagles traded Yasuhiro Ichiba to the Tokyo Yakult Swallows late
last month for 14-year veteran outfielder Ryuji Miyade.
KEY PLAYER: Iwakuma was the biggest
reason the Eagles found themselves in Climax Series conversations. The
right-hander's career year gave the bullpen a break as he ate up 201-2/3 innings
and allowed just three homers in the process.
4. Chiba Lotte Marines
After a stellar 2005 championship
run under manager Bobby Valentine, the Marines have failed to make the playoffs
in two of the past three seasons.
Last year, the Marines couldn't take
one step forward without falling two back through injuries. First base was a
trouble spot, while both of the top two catchers missed time. With a healthy
roster, the Marines could march deep into the postseason in Valentine's final
season in Chiba.
Upside: The addition of second
baseman Tadahito Iguchi, who spent the past four seasons in the majors, brings a
new dynamic to the club, although at 34 he is no longer the defensive whiz who
was one of the PL's best players six years ago.
Ace Naoyuki Shimizu had his best
season since 2003, and Valentine's young pitchers gained a lot of experience. If
catchers Tomoya Satozaki and Tasuku Hashimoto are fit and big right-hander
Hiroyuki Kobayashi shakes off his first bad season, the rotation could be razor
sharp again.
DOWNside: Inconsistent pitching was
a bugaboo for Lotte last season, with injuries and meltdowns aplenty. Only
Yokohama had a higher team ERA than Lotte's 4.14.
Chiba continues to lack power. No
Marine has hit 30 homers since Lee Seung Yeop hit that many in 2005.
IMPACT CHANGES: Iguchi improves the
defense and the offense, where the veteran figures to help steady run production
for the Marines. Gone are oft-injured, slugging first baseman Julio Zuleta and
second baseman Jose Ortiz.
The Marines also dealt hurler
Yasutomo Kubo to Hanshin for Kentaro Hashimoto in an exchange of 28-year-old
right-handers.
KEY PLAYER: Iguchi said he joined
Lotte to bring it to the next level, and his presence could do that. He's an
everyday player who can and will bat at several places in Valentine's lineup.
5. Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters
The Fighters finished third last
year despite a marginal offense--553 runs, fourth best in the PL and a team
average of .255. And the club hasn't added much in the offseason.
Offense will again be the issue for
the Fighters, who figure to force ace Yu Darvish and others to win a lot of
close games.
Upside: The team's
staples--pitching, defense and speed--are excellent. Darvish had numbers good
enough to claim the Sawamura Award as Japan's top hurler but didn't get the nod.
The right-hander was second in the PL in four categories: ERA at 1.88,
strikeouts with 208, wins with 16 and innings pitched with 200-2/3.
Right-hander Brian Sweeney was
second on the club with 12 wins and had a 3.48 ERA.
Second baseman Kensuke Tanaka
bounced back from a horrible 2007 campaign to become the Fighters' offensive
leader in both the leadoff and No. 3 slots of manager Masataka Nashida's lineup.
Right fielder Atsunori Inaba is 36 but keeps himself in superb shape and has
been remarkably consistent.
Downside: The Fighters' pitching
depth after Darvish is an issue. Sweeney had success last season but did so
while leading Japan in home runs and walks allowed. The trade for infielder
Tomohiro Nioka cost the Fighters closer Micheal Nakamura.
The heart of the defense, shortstop
Makoto Kaneko, is 33 and injury-slowed.
Impact changes: Nioka changes third
base from a defensive slot to a power position.
Key player: Hichori Morimoto lost
his power and average to injury last season. If he returns to form in the
leadoff spot, the Fighters have a multidimensional offense and the best center
fielder in the league.
6. Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks
The Hawks suffered through their
worst season since their 54-74-2 mark in 1996, when they also finished last.
The poor results were as much a
result of a self-inflicted injury as former manager Sadaharu Oh tried to
motivate his club by announcing the season would be his last. Instead, the
pressure to win one for the outgoing Oh backfired as the club cracked.
Upside: The offensive center of the
great Hawks clubs of the decade remains intact with Nobuhiko Matsunaka and
Hiroki Kokubo in the middle of the lineup and Munenori Kawasaki providing
defense at short and a spark at the top of the lineup.
Nobuhiro Matsuda had a quality
season in his first full year at third base and won't be 26 until May, meaning
he has some growth potential. Second baseman Yuichi Honda, in his second season
as a regular, took a small step forward and he is just 24.
The starting rotation has enough
super arms that the Hawks are a threat to control every game from the first
pitch.
Downside: Ace Kazumi Saito is always
dominant when healthy but will not make the Opening Day roster.
The age and injury history of
Matsunaka, 35, and Kokubo, 37, are always issues.
Slugging center fielder Hitoshi
Tamura is always a candidate for injury.
Impact changes: New skipper Koji
Akiyama gives the club a chance to refresh itself. First-year managers often do
well simply by being different from their predecessors and seeing the club's
talent in different ways. Oh was there for over a decade so a new look could be
big.
Key player: Matsunaka has been the
Hawks' offensive leader despite struggling the past two seasons. If he hits .300
with 30 homers and 80 walks, the offense will fly.
The next prediction comes from Patrick
Newman of NPB
Tracker who offers his insights on the clubs and players to watch.
Patrick says:
Central League in order of
2009 predicted finish
1. Hanshin Tigers: This could be the
year for Hanshin. Colonel Sanders has been exhumed from his resting place at the
bottom of the Dotombori River, which should be enough to put the team over the
top. Hanshin led the Central League for most of the season last year, despite a
serious lack of home run power. If Takahiro Arai and Kevin
Mench can combine for 45 home runs or so they should be tough to beat.
Key Players: Arai, Mench
2. Yomiuri Giants: Yomiuri slipped
past Hanshin for the Central League crown at the end of the season in 2008, then
took the Japan Series down to the wire before losing to Seibu. Look for a
bounce-back year from Sun-Yeop Lee. The departure of Koji
Uehara creates an opportunity for someone like Kentaro
Nishimura, Shun Tohno, or Takahiko Nomaguchi to step
up.
Key Players: Nishimura, Tohno,
Nomaguchi
3. Hiroshima Carp: The Carp took a
big step forward last season despite the loss of ace Hiroki Kuroda
to the Dodgers. The lineup is respectable 1-5 and they have three good starters
in Colby Lewis, Kan Ohtake, and Kenta Maeda.
Look for a breakout year from Maeda.
Key Player: K Maeda
4. Yakult Swallows: Yakult has a
number of good arms in its bullpen, some young starters that could develop, and
Japan’s top hitter in Norichika Aoki. The big concern with
the Swallows is a lack of team power, so their ability to compete for a playoff
spot will depend on whether or not some of the non-Aoki batters can hit for
average.
Key Players: Jaime
D’Antona, Yoshinori, Tatsunori Masubuchi
5. Chunichi Dragons: The Dragons
finished third last year despite being outscored by 21 by opponents on the
season. This year they’ve subtracted Kenshin Kawakami, Norihiro
Nakamura, and Tyrone Woods and have replaced them with
untested players. I expect a fall in the standings.
Key Players: Tony Blanco,
Kei Nomoto, Kazuki Yoshimi
6.
Yokohama BayStars: Yokohama had by far the worst pitching in the Central last
season, and despite moving Hayato Terahara back into the
rotation, retaining Daisuke Miura, and adding Ryan
Glynn, I don’t think they have enough depth to get out of the cellar.
I think they’ll be more competitive than last year though.
Key
Players: Terahara
Pacific League in order of
2009 predicted finish
1. Seibu Lions: I
think we’ll see a little regression from Okawari Nakamura and
Kazuyuki Hoashi, but a better performance from Hideaki
Wakui. Overall it looks like the Lions have enough to repeat.
Key Players: Wakui, Hoashi, whoever
gets the most at-bats at 1st base
2. Nippon Ham Fighters:
Nippon Ham was actually outscored by their opponents last year. I’m putting
them here because I believe that they have the pitching and defense to win close
games, and that Sho Nakata will turn up at some point during
the season and provide a little offense.The new additions to the bullpen have
the task of replacing Michael Nakamura as well.
Key Players: Nakata, Ryan
Wing, Masanori Hayashi
3. Chiba Lotte Marines:
I didn’t think I’d have the Marines making the playoffs, but I’m putting
them in third because they have a solid front four in their rotation, and no
real holes in their lineup. Hopefully Bobby V can find a way to keep Tadahito
Iguchi and Shunichi Nemoto both in the lineup, as
Nemoto broke out last year with a .296/.369/.430 line.
Key Players: Bobby V, Yoshihisa
Naruse, Yuuki Karakawa
4. Tohoku Rakuten Golden
Eagles: The Eagles have two WBC heroes at the top of their rotation (Hisashi
Iwakuma, Masahiro Tanaka), a couple of solid mid-rotation guys (Darrell
Rasner, Hideaki Asai), and some power in the middle of their lineup (Norihiro
Nakamura, Fernando Seguignol, Takeshi Yamasaki). But on the other hand
they have some holes in their lineup and bullpen.
Key Players: the bullpen
5. Orix Buffaloes:
Manager Daijiro Ohishi took over in May of last year and lead the Buffaloes to a
seemingly improbable playoff run. Looking back, the Buffaloes pitched better
than I realized, with a 3.93 team era and four starters with sub-4:00 eras and
at least 10 wins. If the pitching staff can repeat that performance, and the
aging lineup of foreign sluggers holds up, they’ll be competitive. If not,
look for a B-class finish.
Key Players: Tuffy Rhodes,
Alex Cabrera, Jose Fernandez, Greg LaRocca
6. Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks:
It’s hard to pick the Hawks to finish this low with the amazing rotation depth
they have — Tsuyoshi Wada, Toshiya Sugiuchi, Nagisa Arakaki, Shota
Ohba, Kenji Ohtonari, Kameron Loe, Kazumi Saito (if he can come back
from his injuries) and rookie Shingo Tatsumi. But on the
flipside, their lineup just isn’t what it used to be. The Hawks hit just 99
home runs last year and haven’t added any significant bats. They’re hoping
for a return to form from aging sluggers Hiroki Kokubo and Hitoshi
Tamura, who have been shells of their former selves in recent years.
Key Players: Kokubo, Tamura
